Teams
- San Francisco 49ers (2005-2012)
- Kansas City Chiefs (2013-2017)
- Washington Redskins / Football Team (2018-2020)
Accolades
- 3x Pro Bowl (2013, 2016, 2017)
- NFL Comeback Player of the Year (2020)
“His ability to change things at the line is phenomenal. You won’t run out of gigabytes with him. His capacity to learn and function at a high rate is second to none…[his] short and intermediate game is phenomenal.”
—Andy Reid, Head Coach, Kansas City Chiefs (source)
Alex Smith or Aaron Rodgers? Rodgers or Smith? Such was the dilemma in front of the San Francisco 49ers as they had the first pick in the 2005 NFL Draft. And so, San Francisco selected Utah’s Alex Smith while Cal-Berkeley’s Aaron Rodgers infamously sat and sulked for hours until Green Bay chose him with the 24th overall selection. Hindsight is 20/20 and football fans will recount this story until the end of time because of what Rodgers has done for over a decade in the pros. But even though Alex Smith will eternally be tied to Rodgers because of their draft day experiences, it would be unfair to blame the 49ers for making the choice that they did. Looking back (and possibly forward?), Alex Smith has had a tremendously productive career.
While Aaron Rodgers spent his rookie year scratching himself while watching Packers legend Brett Favre take virtually every snap, Alex Smith found himself the starter in seven of the Niners’ games. Despite the team’s 2-5 record under him, he was individually awful with a mere one touchdown to 11 interceptions. But Head Coach Mike Nolan had faith in his franchise quarterback and in 2006 Smith would start all 16 games. The team showed continued improvement, moving to 7-9 from 4-12 in 2005. Smith was anything but brilliant, but he did show improvement as well, passing for just under 3,000 yards and throwing 16 touchdowns to 16 picks.
The next two years would include successive gut punches to Smith. After a promising 2-1 start to the season, he would get knocked out with a shoulder injury early in the season’s fourth week. When he returned a month later, he was not the same player. The Niners went 2-5 in Smith’s starts in 2007, and finished 5-11 overall. Then, more bad news came in 2008. The joints in the shoulder had not fully healed and Smith would need to go under the knife again, ending his season before it even started.
It seemed as though his career in the Bay Area would be over. Instead, Smith negotiated a lesser deal in order to have a shot at staying and being the starter for the team coming off a 7-9 year. Still, new Head Coach Mike Singletary elected to start the season with Shaun Hill under Center. Hill performed adequately but not exceptionally. After six starts, he was benched for the rehabbed Smith. Although San Francisco still played .500 ball under their former #1 pick, he threw for a career-best 213.6 yards per game alongside 18 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. Smith would earn the starting job in 2010, but the season would go poorly. He would again suffer through shoulder problems (this time to his non-throwing shoulder) and the team would go 3-7 under him in the 6-10 season. The end result was the firing of Singletary as head coach. Despite his struggles, help was on the way for Alex Smith, and the 49ers hire for the 2011 season would be exactly what the doctor ordered.
New Head Coach Jim Harbaugh had been a long-time NFL quarterback who knew the position and helped breathe new life into Smith, resulting in easily the best season of his career in 2011. In starting all 16 games, the former Utah Ute would exceed 3,000 yards passing, throw for 17 touchdowns, and toss only five interceptions. His 1.1% INT per attempt rate was the NFL’s best for the 13-3 Niners. And after all the struggles and injuries, Smith would finally get to be a hero in the spotlight. In the Divisional Round, hosting New Orleans, Smith would hit Vernon Davis for a 14-yard touchdown pass with only nine seconds left in regulation to lead SF over NO 36-32. But he was brilliant throughout the game, passing for 299 yards and three touchdowns, as well as running for a fourth quarter 28-yard touchdown. In the NFC Championship game, Smith would duel with former Super Bowl champ Eli Manning and the NY Giants. Smith would complete less than 50% of his passes. But he threw for 196 yards and two touchdowns while running for 42 yards and not turning the ball over. But in overtime, the Giants would kick a 31-yarder to win the NFC title and a berth in Super Bowl XLVI.
Inspired by a new head coach and with a team on the cusp of the Super Bowl, Smith started strongly in 2012. He would lead the 49ers to a 6-2-1 start before a concussion would knock him out. At the time, he had been completing over 70% of his passes. His back-up, Colin Kaepernick, would perform equally well however, leading to a QB controversy. It was one that Smith would lose as Kaepernick would lead the team the rest of the way, going 5-2 in the regular season and taking San Francisco to the franchise’s sixth Super Bowl appearance. Smith could only watch from the sideline as Kaepernick would lead the 49ers back from 28-6 down, falling just short in a 34-31 defeat to Joe Flacco and the Baltimore Ravens. Doubly sour was Smith’s knowledge that the writing was on the wall: the younger Kaepernick was there to stay.
In the offseason, Smith was traded to Andy Reid’s Kansas City Chiefs and was named starter for the 2013 season. He thrived immediately in Reid’s system. In 15 starts, Smith would throw for over 3,300 yards and 23 TDs to only seven INTs. But even more importantly, he would revolutionize his game in Kansas City. Unlike most dual threat QBs who slowly get away from the run, Smith began to do it more. And in ’13 he scrambled for 427 yards as the Chiefs would go 11-5 and Smith would be named to his first Pro Bowl. On January 4, 2014, Alex Smith would square off with second-year starter Andrew Luck in Indianapolis in what would become a legendary battle. Less than two minutes into the third quarter, Smith hit Knile Davis for a 10-yard touchdown pass to put KC up 38-10. But Luck was not deterred and led Indy all the way back to a seemingly-impossible 45-44 victory. For his part, Alex Smith was nearly perfect. He would throw for 378 yards and four touchdowns, while adding 57 yards on the ground. Ultimately his lone mistake would be a third quarter fumble which Luck and the Colts would turn into seven points as part of their spectacular comeback.
Coming off such a successful season, 2014 could only be seen as a huge disappointment as the Chiefs would go 9-7 in missing the playoffs. Smith played admirably in 15 starts, passing for nearly 3,300 yards and 18 touchdowns. But there was a key development that Smith was experiencing for the first time in his career: sustained durability. He rode this prolonged stretch of good health to a 16-start season in 2015, his first since 2011. The Chiefs would go 11-5 thanks to his 3,486 passing and 498 rushing yards, both career highs. Despite having to go to Houston for Wild Card weekend, Kansas City would easily dismiss the Texans 30-0. Smith was a solid 17-for-22 for 190 yards and both a TD and an INT. This set up a Divisional Round match-up with defending Super Bowl champs New England. Although KC would hang around, they could never get close enough and would fall to the Patriots 27-20. Alex Smith would have an Alex Smith-esque day with 246 yards passing, 44 yards rushing, a touchdown by air, and no turnovers. Unfortunately for the KC faithful, Tom Brady would have a Tom Brady-esque day with 302 yards passing, three total touchdowns, and a turnover-free day himself.
For the third time in four years, Smith would help guide the Chiefs to a playoff appearance in a 12-4 season in 2016. He would complete over 67% of his passes for 3,502 yards on the season. Hosting Pittsburgh in the Divisional Round, the Chiefs D would hold the Steelers without a touchdown. Unfortunately, Pittsburgh would make six field goals and, despite a near-comeback by KC, would triumph over Smith and the Chiefs 18-16. In the loss, Smith would pass for 172 yards, a TD and a pick.
Looking to bounce back from the humbling loss, and trying to fend off rookie first round selection Patrick Mahomes, Smith would have the best season of his career in 2017 at age 33. For the 10-6 Chiefs, Smith would throw for over 4,000 yards and add 355 on the ground in 15 starts. His 26 passing TDs was a career high, and in throwing a minuscule five interceptions, his 1.0% INT/attempt percentage was the best in the NFL. He would also lead all QBs with a 104.7 passer rating. In the Wild Card game at Arrowhead, the Chiefs took a comfortable 21-3 lead into halftime against Tennessee. But the house would crumble and the Titans would score 19 unanswered points to shock Kansas City 22-21. Overall though, Smith was terrific with 264 passing yards, two touchdowns, and no turnovers.
His performance in the Wild Card game was little solace to Alex Smith. He would again have to vacate his position to a younger signal caller, Patrick Mahomes in this case. Kansas City would trade Smith to Washington before the 2018 season. While Smith’s numbers were down in DC, he still helped lead the Hogs to a 6-4 start. Then, after years of good health, Smith would experience traumatic misfortune, suffering a compound fracture to his right leg against Houston during the 11th game of the season. Of more concern than his NFL future was the numerous health issues that Smith faced over the next several months, threatening not only his leg but potentially his life.
After not playing the entire 2019 season, Smith made a triumphant return in 2020, winning NFL Comeback Player of the Year honors. The numbers weren’t particularly good (six TDs to eight INTs), but Washington rallied around him, winning five of his six starts. However, a lingering calf injury kept him out of a first round playoff exit to eventual champs Tampa Bay, and unfortunately eliminating one last chance for a shining moment in one of the greatest comeback seasons (considering the circumstances) in the history of the sport. Smith retired in early 2021, capping off a successful and vastly under-appreciated pro career.
Alex Smith deserves respect. A potential draft bust in San Francisco, he managed to battle injury, and competition with other QBs, to help make the proud franchise a competitor again in 2011 and 2012. Then, he helped turn around a long-suffering franchise in Kansas City to lead them to four postseason appearances in five years. After nearly losing his leg, then his life, he endured 17 surgeries to make it back on the field less than two years later. Smith will always be compared and contrasted with Aaron Rodgers, his 2005 Draft classmate and top rival for the #1 overall selection. But that’s an unfair fight. Compared to most anybody else Rodgers is going to look transcendent. In his own right though, Alex Smith has overcome numerous hardships to have himself a really terrific career.
Deviation Chart
| Season | W-L% | Tot Y/G | Tot TD/G | Tot TO/G | Y/C/Y/A | Cmp % | TD% | Int% |
| Reg Season | 0.054 | -0.057 | -0.077 | 0.100 | -0.045 | 0.012 | -0.045 | 0.089 |
| Playoffs | -0.120 | 0.037 | 0.104 | 0.207 | -0.045 | 0.007 | 0.098 | 0.279 |
Longevity Bonus = 1.2 Title Bonus = 0.0
Index Score = 1.522 (average QB = 0.0)
Deviation Rank (out of 155)
| Season | W-L% | Tot Y/G | Tot TD/G | Tot TO/G | Y/C/Y/A | Cmp % | TD% | Int% |
| Reg Season | 44th | 125th | 137th | 31st | 140th | 76th | 133rd | 23rd |
| Playoffs | T-123rd | 33rd | 24th | 7th | 107th | 58th | 22nd | 8th |
Why is he on the Top 100 list?
Alex Smith didn’t have the most powerful arm, but he also didn’t make a ton of mistakes. That’s huge for a guy who started his career with one touchdown and 11 interceptions. He’s 23nd all time in interception percentage deviation, and 31st all time in fewest total turnovers per game. He’s also in the Top 10 for both categories in terms of playoff performance. Also, from 2011-2020, he never had a losing record as starter in any season (excluding 2019, which he missed due to injury). His 99-67-1 regular season record puts him in the Top 50 for win-loss deviation. Although he only played in seven postseason games, which therefore has limited impact on his index score, his overall playoff deviations are outstanding, placing him in the Top 50 in five of eight categories.
Why isn’t he higher on the list?
A reason he didn’t make a lot of mistakes was because Smith wasn’t a high-risk player. He falls well outside the Top 100 in regular season starts for total yards per game, total touchdowns per game, average of yards/completion + yards/attempt, and touchdowns per pass attempt. He’s also hindered by a 2-5 career postseason record as starter.
The Quarterback Project 